Haris Ashley
Blackjack insurance is a side bet offered in certain variations of the game, allowing players to protect their hand against the dealer getting blackjack. It is generally considered a bad bet, as the odds of the dealer having a natural blackjack are slim, and players are likely to lose more money than they would win. However, it can be a good way to add extra coverage when playing conservatively. When the dealer's upcard is an Ace, players can place an insurance bet equal to half of the original wager. If the dealer has a natural blackjack, the insurance bet pays out 2-1, but if the dealer does not have blackjack, the player loses the insurance bet. While insurance bets can be costly for inexperienced players, they can be beneficial for advanced players who understand card-counting and basic strategy.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Definition | Insurance in blackjack is a side bet offered in certain variations of the game, which gives players a chance to protect themselves against the dealer getting a blackjack. |
| When to take insurance | When the dealer's upcard is an Ace and you have a decent hand yourself of 15 or higher. |
| Odds | The odds of the dealer having Blackjack with an Ace up-card is 31.5%. The odds of the dealer making Blackjack is 9 to 4. |
| Probability of winning | If there's less than a 1/3 chance of the dealer having Blackjack, you should not take Insurance. If there is a greater than 1/3 chance, you should take insurance. |
| Payout | Insurance bets in blackjack are usually half your original wager and will pay out 2 to 1 if you win. |
| House edge | The insurance bet has a 3% house advantage. The house edge is too high (8.5%). |
| Risks | Insurance is generally considered a bad bet as you’re likely to lose more money than you would win. It is a risky move but can be a great way to protect your hand against the dealer’s potential blackjack. |
| Tips | Learn how to play blackjack really well, and then master Basic Strategy. Practice sensible bankroll management and betting strategies. |
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What You'll Learn
Insurance is a side bet
The odds of the insurance bet winning depend on the probability that the dealer will have a blackjack. The probability of the dealer having a blackjack with an Ace up-card is 31.5%. This means that if you make an insurance bet, your expected return is -48.7% as you will lose 48.7% of the time and win 31.5% of the time. Therefore, it is generally not recommended to take insurance in blackjack as the house edge is too high.
Insurance bets can be costly if you don’t have a good understanding of when to take them, so it’s best to know what you are doing before placing one. The best time to place an insurance bet is when the dealer's upcard is an Ace and you have a decent hand yourself of 15 or higher. That way, even if you lose your insurance bet, you might still be able to win the round. On average, players lose more than half of the insurance bets made and since the bet pays out 2 to 1, it can turn into a losing proposition.
Insurance is generally considered a bad bet since the odds of the dealer having a natural blackjack are slim, and you’re likely to lose more money than you would win with the insurance bet. However, it can be a good way to add some extra coverage if you’re playing conservatively or want to make your bankroll stretch further. Taking insurance in blackjack can be a risky move, but it can also protect your hand against the dealer’s potential blackjack.
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When to place an insurance bet
Insurance bets in blackjack are generally considered a bad idea because the odds of the dealer having a natural blackjack are slim, and players are likely to lose more money than they would win with the insurance bet. However, there are certain scenarios where placing an insurance bet can be beneficial.
Firstly, it's important to understand what an insurance bet is and when it's offered. Blackjack insurance is a side bet offered when the dealer's upcard is an Ace. It pays out 2-1 if the dealer has a natural blackjack (21). The player can place a separate bet equal to half of the original wager on the insurance line. If the dealer does not have blackjack, the player loses their insurance bet and the game continues as usual.
Now, let's look at when to place an insurance bet:
- When You Have a Strong Hand: If you have a decent hand of 15 or higher and the dealer's upcard is an Ace, you can consider placing an insurance bet. In this case, you are confident that the dealer's second card will give them blackjack, and you want to protect your hand.
- When You've Placed a Large Bet: If you've placed a large bet to hit your profit goals, you may want to take insurance as a way to guarantee some return on your wager. This is especially relevant if you plan to take even money in case the side bet fails.
- When You're an Advanced Card Counter: Advanced card counters in live games can use the insurance bet to their advantage because their strategy and predictions are more precise. By keeping track of the cards that have been dealt, they can make more informed decisions about when to place insurance bets.
- When You Want to Play Conservatively: While it may not be the most profitable strategy, placing an insurance bet can be a way to protect your bankroll and play more conservatively. This is especially true if you already have blackjack and want to ensure you profit from it in the event of a tie.
It's important to note that even in these scenarios, insurance bets are still not recommended as a long-term strategy because they increase the house edge and can be costly in the long run. It's always a good idea to understand the odds and probabilities before placing any bets, especially when it comes to insurance in blackjack.
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Probability of dealer having blackjack
Insurance in blackjack is a side bet offered when the dealer’s upcard is an Ace. It pays out at 2-1 if the dealer has a natural blackjack (21). The player may place a separate bet equal to half of the original wager on the insurance line. If the dealer does not have blackjack, the player loses their insurance bet and the game continues as usual.
The probability of the dealer having blackjack with an Ace up-card is 31.5%. This means that if you make an insurance bet, your expected return is -48.7% as you will lose 48.7% of the time and win 31.5% of the time. Therefore, it is generally not recommended to take insurance in blackjack as the house edge is too high (8.5%). The odds of the dealer making blackjack are 9 to 4 on average.
The insurance bet has a 3% house advantage and will only pay off when the dealer has a 10-point card, which happens 30% of the time. Even with the payout being 2 to 1, the casino is getting a 3% discount on the payout so every time you take insurance, you are effectively giving the casino 3%. The higher the number of decks, the higher the odds are for potentially losing your insurance bet.
In some games, players can also take insurance when a 10-valued card shows, but the dealer has an ace in the hole less than one-tenth of the time. The insurance bet is susceptible to advantage play. It is advantageous to make an insurance bet whenever the hole card has more than a one in three chance of being a ten. Card counting techniques can identify such situations.
It is important to note that insurance bets can also be costly if you don't have a good understanding of when to take them, so it's best to know what you are doing before placing one. Insurance is generally considered a bad bet since the odds of the dealer having a natural blackjack are slim, and you’re likely to lose more money than you would win with the insurance bet.
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Insurance bet payouts
When the dealer's face-up card is an ace, you have the option to take insurance, which typically costs half of your initial bet. If the dealer does have a blackjack, the insurance bet pays out at 2:1, meaning you break even despite losing your initial stake. For example, if you bet $10 and take insurance for $5, you will be paid $10 on your $5 insurance bet, resulting in a total of $15, which includes your original $10 bet.
The probability of the dealer having blackjack with an ace up-card is approximately 31.5% to 32.65%. This means that if you make an insurance bet, you can expect a return of -48.7% as you will lose 48.7% of the time and only win 31.5% of the time. Therefore, it is generally not recommended to take insurance unless you have a good reason to believe the dealer has blackjack.
While insurance bets can protect your bankroll and ensure you don't lose money, they offer poor value in the long run. The house edge for insurance bets is typically between 5.8% and 8.5%, depending on the number of decks used, which is relatively high compared to other table games.
In conclusion, while insurance bets can provide a safety net, they are generally not a profitable strategy due to the low odds of winning and the high house edge. It is essential to understand the probabilities and potential payouts before placing any insurance bets in blackjack to make informed decisions.
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Insurance bets and card counting
Insurance bets are generally considered a bad idea for blackjack players. They increase the house edge and are designed to be profitable for the casino, not the player. However, insurance bets can be profitable for card counters who are able to keep a rough track of the ten-point cards left in the deck. Card counting is a strategy used to determine whether the player or the dealer has an advantage on the next hand. Card counters try to overcome the house edge by keeping a running count of high and low-value cards dealt. They generally bet more when they have an advantage and less when the dealer has an advantage.
Card counting is based on statistical evidence that high cards (aces, 10s, and 9s) benefit the player, while low cards (2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s, and 7s) benefit the dealer. High cards increase the player's probability of hitting a blackjack, which often pays out at 3 to 2 odds. Blackjack players can use the Hi-Lo system, the most common card-counting strategy, to assign a point value to each rank and keep a running count. When the count rises, the advantage begins shifting to the player, and they should bet more. When the count goes negative, the casino's advantage increases, and players should bet less.
In standard blackjack games with multiple decks, insurance is a bad bet for the player unless they are card counting and know that the proportion of ten-value cards remaining is higher than usual. Some card counters might take insurance if their count indicates that the deck is rich in ten-value cards. This requires a deep understanding of the deck's composition. Insurance betting is profitable for card counters who can keep a rough track of the ten-point cards left in a deck. The odds of winning with an insurance bet are less, but the payout is high when a player wins. A good blackjack insurance strategy is when the player already has a blackjack and is quite sure, by applying the card-counting strategy, that the dealer also has a ten-point card. If the player is able to protect their hand from a probable blackjack, they get a payout of 3:2.
Insurance is much more important to a counter than to a non-counting player. When the deck is rich in tens, the counter will have a much bigger than normal bet riding, so his ability to take insurance is a game-saver. It is aptly named because it can reduce a player's variance at a cost to their EV. The importance of insurance to a player depends on their spread and the percentage of hands played over the insurance index, and how strongly their count correlates to the insurance decision.
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Frequently asked questions
Insurance is a side bet offered in certain variations of real money blackjack, which gives players a chance to protect themselves against the dealer getting a blackjack.
Insurance is offered when the dealer’s upcard is an Ace.
The odds of winning an insurance bet depend on the probability that the dealer will have a blackjack. The odds of the dealer having a blackjack with an Ace up-card is 31.5%.
Insurance bets are usually half of the original wager and will pay out 2 to 1 if you win.
Insurance is generally considered a bad bet as the odds of the dealer having a blackjack are slim, and you’re likely to lose more money than you would win. However, it can be a good way to add extra coverage if you’re playing conservatively.
